The Public Opinion Soapbox

onewhoknows · Joined: 29 Oct 2007 Posts: 59

That wasn't very nice. They (other media) aren't even home turf!
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onewhoknows
Common sense is not so common

postaff · Joined: 22 Oct 2007 Posts: 106 Location: Chambersburg

Sometimes we pay a price for rockng the boat.

onewhoknows · Joined: 29 Oct 2007 Posts: 59

Well, I believe if a person chooses to run for a public office, starting out by letting the electors down and alienating the "home" press is a step in an avoidable hole.
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onewhoknows
Common sense is not so common

onewhoknows · Joined: 29 Oct 2007 Posts: 59

But then, I have not walked in those shoes Smile

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onewhoknows
Common sense is not so common

A Talking Horse · Joined: 22 Oct 2007 Posts: 135 Location: Cove Gap

How about Pat Fleagle?

Why not? - he didnt lose that badly to Todd Rock...

He has the experience...

So he had to take a voter mandated vacation - big deal.

Put him back to work! He probably getting the damn pension anyway!!! Make him earn it!
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Do everything that's in you, you feel to be your part...

Paxton · Joined: 24 Oct 2007 Posts: 15 Location: Quincy

Making Book on ’08

For all of you politicos out there, here is my amateur attempt at handicapping how things might shape up next week. This is a VERY unscientific analysis, but hopefully you’ll find it fun:

The likely R candidates (in no particular order):

Rob Kauffman – He’s a viable candidate, but it’s unlikely he would run. He would need to give up his coveted House job to run for Punt’s seat. And while Kauffman comes from the “right” part of the district, he’s not the most attractive candidate. More and more voters in Chambersburg are whispering that Kauffman has become too much part of the good ol’ boy system and has quickly become a do nothing sort of office holder. He has good name recognition and his record is short, so it would be hard for opponents to sling much mud at his record.
Odds of a Kauffman candidacy: 30-1

Todd Rock – Our other county legislator might have a more interesting crack at Punt’s seat. Everyone knows that the Rocks are professional politicians and if they run, they’ll prove to be workaholics for the seat. Rock has the same problem as Kauffman, though, in that he would need to give up his House seat if he tries to jump to the Senate. Moreover, Rock is only in his first term. While the R party might try to draft him into the seat, some voters might be critical if Rock tries to run for another office, only 2 years after winning a tough House seat. However, Rock is very attractive. In his first year, he’s already introduced a lot of tough legislation and has lived up to his reform platform. If Rock can get around the “too early to run” problem, he would be a formidable, and attractive candidate.
Odds of a Rock candidacy: 3-1

G. Warren Elliott – Our former county commissioner. For years, many have speculated that Warren would be the guy to replace Punt. It’s also well known that Punt personally likes Elliott and would probably fully endorse an Elliott candidacy. Warren has good name recognition in Franklin County and would be a competitive candidate. Problem is that Elliott has picked up a lot of baggage in the past year. Friends say he is very thin skinned. Might not fare well in a tough, knock down, drag em’ out race. He says he's not running, but he's known to say one thing and then do another. Overall, he’s a solid candidate, but one that could likely be defeated in the R primary.
Odds of an Elliott candidacy: 40-1

Rich Alloway – Basically has already declared, but if someone else jumps in over the weekend, he could get out. Lots of Rs have long suggested that Alloway would likely seek Punt’s seat in the event of a vacancy. Alloway used to work for Punt and could be supported by Punt. However, Alloway is also from the wrong part of the district to win, although the party could probably get behind him, as he’s an old party loyalist. He’s unproven in a highly contested race.
Odds of an Alloway candidacy: 2-1

Jordon Conner – I hesitate to even list him. Nonetheless, some Rs see him as following in the footsteps of Kauffman. Conner is ambitious and he’s pulling the right levers within the R party. At this point, he’s too young and too inexperienced to seriously run. Also, the bad publicity of the past year of his dad (the current coroner) would be a big detraction to a Conner candidacy.
Odds of a Conner candidacy: 1000-1

Tom Monahan – Well known funeral home director in Adams County. Some may recall that he made an effort many years ago to unseat Punt. Monahan would have the money to run a serious campaign this time around. Whether he still has any interest remains to be seen. Adams County voters are hungry for a local person to hold this seat. Not sure, though, how Monahan would sell in Franklin County. However, with enough money to spend, he could be a viable candidate.
Odds of a Monaha candidacy: 75-1

Former Reps. Pat Fleagle and Steve Maitland: Both officials have good name recognition in the district. Pay raise scandal pulled them both down, though, and both suffered embarrassing defeats last year. Whether enough time has passed for either of them to run again is unlikely. Of the two, Fleagle is more attractive as he might still have a stronger base in the Waynesboro area. Fleagle had never really been challenged until the Rock candidacy last year. Some insiders mentioned that Fleagle’s base was weaker than thought. Maitland made some very bad public comments in defense of the pay raise issue. Unlikely he could make a return to public life at this time.
Odds of a Fleagle or Maitland candidacy: 500-1

Other row officers, township supervisors, school board members, and boro council members from throughout the district: Row officers in Franklin and Adams County aren’t a terribly attractive group for purposes of running for senate. In Adams County, no names come to immediate mind (although see the D list below for a possible former row officer). There may be any number of local office holders who think they could run for the senate seat, but when you analyze the time and money needed to do this right, it’s unlikely.
Odds of a someone from this group running: 250-1

The likely D candidates (in no particular order). I really had to scratch my head to generate some D names:

Cheryl Plummer: The former county commissioner has great name recognition and a stellar background. Age might be a slight factor in her not running, but being a female is probably a plus. She’s a legitimate candidate. Downside is that she’s too tied to Elliott, and the commissioners lost their luster in the past year. Also, she has never really faced a serious challenger in any of her elections in Franklin County. Very unproven and unknown how she might withstand a tough race. Overall, a good candidate, but probably not a winner.
Odds of a Plummer candidacy: 20-1

Tom Weaver: He resigned last year as a commissioner in Adams County and is now working for the state (probably a Gov. Rendell appointment). Weaver is a serious guy and is well known and well liked in Adams County. He is an issues person and could probably add a lot of interesting debate to this race. Unknown whether his success in Adams County would transfer to Franklin County. Also unlikely that he’d want to run for another seat, less than year after resigning in Adams County.
Odds of a Weaver candidacy: 50-1

Don Richards: The consummate D candidate for various offices in Franklin County. Richards actually ran against Punt last time around. The Ds always want to oust Don, but they can’t seem to keep him away. Richards can’t win the senate seat, but he seems to thoroughly enjoy running. If his health holds up, don’t be shocked to see him jump in for this one too.
Odds of a Richards candidacy: 10-1

Clint Barkdoll – He has pulled off the odd political feat of losing an election yet somehow keeping and growing a solid following. Readers here know he was the Haloscan favorite in ‘07 and his name still seems to pop up from time to time. Very qualified, knows issues better than anyone, and could be a rising star for the Ds. However, he did lose the commissioner race and was unable to emerge from the crowded field. His hardball style might be a turnoff in a large district race. Rs hate the prospect of facing this guy in a debate. A doubtful candidate this time around.
Odds of a Barkdoll candidacy: 30-1

Jim Zeger – Another losing commissioner candidate, but made a strong showing for someone from Mercersburg. As sitting mayor there, has somewhat of a platform. Zeger name is good D political name in Franklin County. Might be too light on issues and after commissioner race, is Zeger up for a tiring senate race? Likely content to enjoy a pending retirement, even though he is a viable candidate.
Odds of a Zeger candidacy: 50-1

Andrew Alosi – Lost election to Kauffman last go round and has sort of disappeared since then. Alosi ran an OK campaign against Kauffman, but results in the general election were overwhelmingly against him (even D voters didn’t go for him). Voters might have been turned off by age and not enough meat on other issues. Alosi could be a legitimate candidate if he could raise some money and get a base in place. However, it seemed like a lot of voters were very turned off by him in the House race. Unlikely you’ll see him in this bout.
Odds of an Alosi candidacy: 250-1

Look forward to seeing some other names thrown out there in response to this post. Cheers!

A Talking Horse · Joined: 22 Oct 2007 Posts: 135 Location: Cove Gap

Kauffman and Rock have both said "not interested" - on record.
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Do everything that's in you, you feel to be your part...

Torgo · Posted: Sat Jan 19, 2008 1:56 pm Post subject:

"Haloscan favorite in '07"

LOL

We all saw where that got him. Reminds me of what Bart Simpson said in reply to a suggestion the kids use the Internet to mobilize political action:

"No! We need to reach people whose opinions actually matter!"

Paxton · Joined: 24 Oct 2007 Posts: 15 Location: Quincy

Point well made! I threw that in after looking through these posts and noting that someone said they only discovered certain candidates via this forum. Struck me as odd. Sometimes, it's easy for us to forget that we are a small community here and the masses don't even see this stuff. I hope whoever runs for senate at least has a decent web site to give us information.

Here is one other point: the next senator will be a registered R. The R to D ratio here is so top heavy that it will no doubt stay an R seat.

A Talking Horse · Joined: 22 Oct 2007 Posts: 135 Location: Cove Gap

.45chel · Joined: 26 Oct 2007 Posts: 2572 Location: Chambersburg

Just wondering what are the right and wrong sides of the district to launch from?
I don't want to seem inflammatory, the 'invisible lines' in this area always confuse me
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Don Richards · Joined: 20 Jan 2008 Posts: 1 Location: Greencastle, Pa

I ran for the state senate 4 years ago and in the process just about ruined my health. So I don't envy anyone deciding to run. Trying to hold down a full time job and run a campaign in a district that huge is just about impossible. The physical demands are unreal. I had spinal surgery in December 2006 so you can take my name off the list. My goal is becoming able to climb steps!

Basically, the ideal candidate would live in Franklin County, but that doesn't have to be. Sen. Bill Moore lived in Perry County when he succeeded D. Elmer Hawbaker. Punt eventually took over for Moore when he stepped down.

I don't know of any Democratic candidate as yet. I recently heard of a Carroll Davenport from York. She might be a good potential candidate. In 2004 I did better in York County than in the rest of the district, percentage wise. A few years ago I had a guy tell me that he was planning to run this year but a while back, he had a bad personal tragedy and I don't think his heart is in it anymore.

Last year, running for county commissioner, I met a few Republican candidates that I thought were very good sincere people and I think would make a good state senator. Among the Democrats, regardless of any differences that we might have, I think that Clint Barkdoll would be the best choice that we could put up. Beyond Clint, the next best possibility might be Doug Furness. I think that both could do a great job.

With an open seat both state parties will be involved and will be in play.

Don

Coppy · Joined: 28 Oct 2007 Posts: 2131 Location: Chambersburg

Wow, someone knows their local politics... thanks Paxton!

Torgo · Posted: Mon Jan 21, 2008 11:07 am Post subject:

.45chel · Joined: 26 Oct 2007 Posts: 2572 Location: Chambersburg

Emphasis my own.

Our view: A bigger field of candidates benefits the entire district